british journal of environment and climate change impact factor
We found that provincial-level energy substitution benefits from future fuels were slightly smaller than those estimated from contemporary fuels (Fig. Cumulative net GHG emissions in 2070 compared to the magnitude of the associated cumulative change in harvest C, relative to the baseline, for each region (points) along with linear regressions (lines) for a default scenario implementation level and b all implementation levels, assuming high substitution benefits. Snags and coarse woody debris have been found to have high variability among and between the ecosystems related to natural disturbance types for both volume and decay class [57]. 2017;47:604–14. Hanes C, Wang X, Jain P, Parisien M-A, Little J, Flannigan M. Fire regime changes in Canada over the last half century. Accessed 2 Mar 2020. 2019. 2018;562:259–62. 2018;13:e0195999. Smyth C, Dugan AJ, Olguín M, Birdsey R, Wayson C, Alanis A, Kurz WA. Note that panels d and e have a smaller y-axis range. Information on substitution benefits for pulp and paper is limited, and we assumed there was no substitution benefit, but given the proportion of C in this category (25% to 34% of wood commodities), refining these factors could have large impacts on the net GHG reduction. A real options-net present value approach to assessing land use change: a case study of afforestation in Canada. BC MOECCS. Terms and Conditions, A $50/tCO2e penalty for slashburing has been assumed in the baseline, in addition to the $5/odt burning cost. Future severe fire seasons are expected for the interior and southern Cordillera of western Canada due to increasing temperatures [19, 63], high fuel loads from Mountain Pine Beetle after-effects [62], and reduced fuel moisture from changing weather patterns [64]. Mitigation costs were estimated using the Model for Economic Analysis of Forest Carbon Management (MEA-FCM) which has been used at both the national [32] and provincial level [67]. 2009;51:8–18. Low substitution benefits, hereafter referred to as ‘Future Fuels’, were based on a low-C electricity forecast that assumed higher carbon prices and greater adoption of emerging energy technologies [41]. CleanBC. In this study, we used regionally differentiated economic assumptions by three broad regions (northern interior, southern interior, coastal region) as well as at the timber supply area (TSA) level for the Bioenergy scenarios in order to capture the spatial variation in market price and production cost (Additional file 1: Table S9). statement and Future harvest levels (from 2015 to 2070) were estimated from Annual Allowable Cut levels [15] for public lands, reduced by 15% because harvest levels are often lower than allowable levels, and further reduced in three regions with large impacts of 2017 fires. We found that the use of wood played an important role in determining the GHG reduction and cost per tonne in the Higher Recovery and LLP scenarios. Canada’s 7th national communication and 3rd biennial report. Mitigation scenarios that we did not consider in this analysis include afforestation, enhanced forest rehabilitation after natural disturbance, wildfire and forest management interactions, and adaptation scenarios that could have a mitigation benefit. Forest carbon mitigation policy: a policy gap analysis for British Columbia. In terms of individual scenarios, the Restricted Harvest and Harvest Less scenarios have the lowest mitigation costs ($20–$30 per tCO2e), but in terms of socio-economic impacts, there were significant reductions in jobs (Fig. Natural Resources Canada. 2017;80:80–98. 2010;56:366–78. Walton AW. The variations of cost curves for the domestic portfolio for default and low implementation levels and high and low substitution benefits are shown in Additional file 1: Figure S9. The journal also explores technological, policy, strategic, and social responses to climate change. 2018. An understanding of economically feasible and socio-economically attractive mitigation scenarios along with trade offs for environmental indicators relating to species composition and age, helps decision makers with long-term planning for land sector contributions to GHG emission reduction efforts, and provides valuable information for stakeholder consultations. The International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses seeks to create an interdisciplinary forum for discussion of evidence of climate change, its causes, its ecosystemic impacts, and its human impacts. High substitution benefits, hereafter referred to as ‘Contemporary Fuels’, were based on spatially explicit contemporary fuels from communities [2], remote communities [46], and industry [1], Additional file 1: Tables S3 and S4. Yemshanov D, McCarney GR, Hauer G, Luckert MK, Unterschultz J, McKenney DW. Coverage spans a wide range of topics, including Ecological Impacts; Advances in Modeling; Sea Level Projections; Extreme Events; Climate Feedback and Sensitivity; Hydrologic Impact; Effects on Human Health; and Economics and Policy Issues. DEG: A disturbance event generator for GCBM, Internal report. Canada has committed to a 30% reduction in emissions by 2030 (relative to 2005 emissions) [9], and to contribute to this reduction the Pan-Canadian Framework for Clean Growth and Climate Change provides financial incentives for rehabilitation of forests after natural disturbances, construction of innovative wood structures, and the use of wood for heating in remote and rural communities in place fossil fuel burning [10]. Landscape-scale fuel treatment and wildfire impacts on carbon stocks and fire hazard in California spotted owl habitat. Ministry of Forests, Working Pap. Such an invariance occurred across most TSAs, indicating that the cost per tonne in conservation scenarios is relatively spatially independent. The total cumulative mitigation potential in 2070 and contributions from each of the components is shown in Fig. If wildfire and carbon models were more closely linked, the GHG impacts of fuel treatments (prescribed burning and salvage harvest) on future wildfire severity and burned areas could be investigated. Should Sea-Ice Modeling Tools Designed for Climate Research Be Used for Short-Term Forecasting? Carbon mitigation potential of the French forest sector under threat of combined physical and market impacts due to climate change. Post-consumer commodities were sent to landfills, or incinerated, or used for energy (Additional file 1: Table S1). There is also uncertainty in growth of older stands for the conservation scenarios because yield tables based on even-aged stands simplifies their multi-story, multi-age, and multi-species characteristics. Cost curves were constructed by ranking cost per tonne values from the lowest to the highest and plotting them against the cumulative mitigation potential. Wang X, Thompson DK, Marshall GA, Tymstra C, Carr R, Flannigan MD. Two conservation scenarios were considered. Our analysis assessed the net GHG reduction resulting from changes in forest management, the use of wood products or bioenergy, and substitution benefits achieved through wood product uses. Average avoided emissions for these implementation levels were 0.50, 0.46 and 0.44 tC avoided per tC used for bioenergy, indicating that at the provincial level, the substitution benefit per unit of tC collected decreased with additional biomass because it was directed towards electricity production which avoided low emissions grid electricity (Additional file 1: Figure S3). Challenges remain, however, in the quantification of climate change impacts, including changes in future tree growth and mortality rates and changes in future wildfire risks. The Harvest Residues for Bioenergy, Higher Recovery plus Harvest Residues for Bioenergy, and Longer-Lived Products (LLP) scenarios indicated moderate mitigation costs ($94–$126 per tCO2e). Lobianco A, Caurla S, Delacote P, Barkaoui A. where subscript j refers to the three products substituted by wood (concrete and plastic that were substituted by sawnwood and panels, and fossil fuel energy substituted by bioenergy from harvest residues), p and c refer to the per unit prices and costs, respectively, uj represents the amounts of alternative products or fossil fuel energy that were substituted by one unit of wood products or harvest residues, and ∆HWP is the quantity change in wood products or harvest residues for the mitigation scenario relative to the baseline. TBS. in the building sector. 2013;8:1–20. We assumed the change in recovered harvest biomass, which included changes in harvest levels and harvest residues for bioenergy, would be a suitable normalization factor. [49, 48], Xu et al. Portfolios were constructed by selecting the best combination of scenarios (Additional file 1: Figure S4) in each region for two goals (maximize the global (defined as within BC and elsewhere) cumulative mitigation, or maximize the domestic (within BC) cumulative mitigation), over three time periods (2020–2030, 2020–2050 or 2020–2070). Article  single-family homes, furniture, etc.) Institute for Global Environmental Strategies. of BC. Accessed 17 Feb 2020. The Bioenergy scenario had the greatest variation amongst the regions, which was caused by the degree to which available biomass for bioenergy could meet the local heat demand and substitute high-emissions fossil fuels (See Additional file 2). Canadian Forest Serivce, Pacific Forestry Centre, Information report BC-X-455, Victoria, BC. Accessed 3 Mar 2019. However, no change in market prices of HWP was assumed in any scenario because HWP prices are usually determined by large-scale markets while log markets are relatively regional. The model was run from 1990 to 2070 on all public forests within BC at 1 ha (0.001 degree) resolution. Normalized net GHG reductions, defined as the net change in cumulative GHG emissions divided by the cumulative change in harvested wood for the Higher Recovery scenario were − 1 for all implementation levels in most regions, while other scenarios had more regional variability (Additional file 1: Figure S5). Int J Wildland Fire. Catalogue No. Climate change mitigation in British Columbia’s forest sector: GHG reductions, costs, and environmental impacts. If managed stands achieve higher yields then the mitigation potential associated with conservation scenarios has been over-estimated. volume 15, Article number: 21 (2020) An understanding of economically feasible and socio-economically attractive mitigation scenarios along with trade offs for environmental indicators relating to species composition and age, helps decision makers with long-term planning for land sector contributions to GHG emission reduction efforts, and provides valuable information for stakeholder consultations.


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